Shumlin’s Decade Old Climate Prediction Revisited

March 16, 2018

by Rob Roper

In 2007, then Senator Peter Shumlin said in an interview with Jane Lindholm, “Any reasonable scientist will tell you that we’re going to rise anywhere between another two and three degrees in the next 30 years. That means that New Jersey’s climate is moving to Vermont in the next decade.”  [Emphasis added] Well, it’s eleven years later, one year into the decade where Vermont is supposed to look like New Jersey. So, how did Peter “Carnak the Magnificent” Shumlin’s prediction turn out?

Maybe his crystal ball was upside down, because New Jersey is actually looking more like Vermont these days – full of snow. The real threat to our ski industry might have less to do with vanishing snow and more with stiffer competition from New Jersey’s Campgaw and Mountain Creek resorts! (Not really. Stowe rules!)

Chalk Shumlin’s prediction up there with Al Gore’s prediction that the polar ice caps would be gone in 2014. (They’re still here!) And the predictions that climate change would lead to a “browning” of the earth with dustbowl conditions. (The earth is actually “greening.”) The list goes on (CLICK HERE).

But, what Vermonters should think about is the fact that after Peter Shumlin made his prediction, he went on to become governor and based a lot of our current environmental policy on a foundation of belief that has turned out to be demonstrably wrong. So, maybe it’s time to adjust our environmental policy accordingly.

P.S. Who’s ready for Spring!

Rob Roper is president of the Ethan Allen Institute

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Willem Post March 16, 2018 at 9:16 pm

“But, what Vermonters should think about is the fact that after Peter Shumlin made his prediction, he went on to become governor and based a lot of our current environmental policy on a foundation of belief that has turned out to be demonstrably wrong.”

Not only wrong, but the Legislators obliged by signing into law huge giveaways to renewable energy special interest, which manage NOT to reduce Vermont’s CO2 during that decade!!!!, but they did manage to slow down the growth of the Vermont economy, except the highly-subsidized RE sector. A unilateral carbon tax would be the death knell for the anemic, near-zero, real-growth Vermont economy.

The infamous ESSEX plan is a big, multi-decade, government-directed, socialistic, wealth transfer tax from the tax-paying middle class to the tax-consuming lower class. It is a vote-getting project of big-government Democrats and Progressives. It will do NOTHING to reduce global warming.

Various RE interests and lobbyists are going around the state to promote a unilateral carbon tax to boost RE businesses, because future federal subsidies will be decreasing.

The unilateral carbon tax would take $240 to $300 million out of people’s pockets and transfer it to the state government. A unilateral carbon tax would significantly increase the cost of gasoline and diesel for driving, and of fuel oil and propane for heating.

As part of various state programs, some people would get some money back as rebates, many others would get nothing back, or much less than paid in, similar to Efficiency Vermont’s surcharge on electric bills.

The owners of low/medium income rental apartment buildings (mostly in Burlington, Rutland, Montpelier, etc.), a powerful lobby in Montpelier, would get carbon tax funds to 1) insulate and seal their buildings and 2) install subsidized solar systems (Chinese panels), subsidized heat pumps (Japanese) and subsidized Powerwall 2.0 batteries (Arizona); hard-earned money leaving Vermont.

For Vermont to impose a unilateral carbon tax would make its economy less competitive versus other states, i.e., more brain drain, more TAX-PAYING households leaving the state (TAX-CONSUMING households are staying), and fewer good-paying, steady, full-time jobs, with good benefits in the private sector. A unilateral carbon tax would be another headwind for the anemic, near-zero, real-growth Vermont economy.

A unilateral carbon tax would further aggrandize Vermont’s government, which is too large, too inefficient, is too bloated with programs, and is spending too much money and running annual deficits that are offset with annual increases of taxes, fees and surcharges, as if money grows on trees.

After six long years of out-of-control government spending, Vermont finally has a governor, who aims to reduce the bloated, wasteful state government to enable the anemic, hollowed-out private sector to start growing again.


JOhn McClaughry March 17, 2018 at 2:21 pm

I can see that Willem is going to be a pretty hard sell for VPIRG.


Nancy Paquette Lussier March 17, 2018 at 12:30 am

Joke was when he was elected.


William Hays March 17, 2018 at 8:05 am

Sad, but true. Methinks Scott is another RINO. How ’bout we get all the Barre ‘granite chippers’ off the dole. A magnificent “Mount Rushmore-esq” mountain sculpture could be created on the Worcester Range. It would only portray the magnificent proboscises profiles of Schumlin, Scott, and Weinberger. The obsolete/antique double chair, from Smuggler’s Morse Mountain, could provide access, rather economically. Reliability and safety not guaranteed…. It could be called the “Three Nose Dive Ski Area”. Eat-your-heart-out, Stowe Mountain Resort, and South Dakota, and Cow Hampshire! All trails ‘double black diamond’! A bit of EB-5 funding might be required. Patty Leahy can take care of that. Lift tickets would be free. Thanks Bernie! Night skiing provided by illumination from 320 Blittersdorf wind generators on the Worcester Range ridgeline and the local electric co-op.


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