IPCC Hiding Truth on its Failed Models

Testimony of Prof. John R. Christy, U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology 29 Mar 2017 (excerpt)

John R. Christy is Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science, Alabama’s State Climatologist and Director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. He has served as a Lead Author, Contributing Author and Reviewer of United Nations IPCC assessments, has been awarded NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, and in 2002 was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.

This diagram actually appeared in the AR5 [IPCC Assessment Report 5, 2014] and it shows a vertical temperature structure from the surface to the stratosphere, and between 20oN and 20oS. It was only because of my repeated insistence that the report could be open to legal challenge that they did put this chart in the Supplement. To avoid drawing attention to it, they buried it in the Supplement and it wouldn’t be published until long after the big press release.

I enlarge this part of the diagram in the slide above, showing the temperature trend in the tropics. So the troposphere; and this is the trend – it gets hot over here (to the right of the chart), cold the other way. The red – remember this is in the IPCC – the red bands as you go up in height are the trends from the models that were used in the AR5. The white bands show the actual observations. Do you see any crossover there? Maybe one tiny bit right at the bottom, but basically you can see there is almost no congruence, there is no agreement between the observations and the models. The IPCC knew it. They knew something else too. They also ran the models without any additional (anthropogenic) greenhouse forcing – and those results are shown by the blue bands. What do you see about the blue here? The blue bands closely match the observations. So if the models were run without extra greenhouse gases they reproduced the actual temperature of the atmosphere, and that was never ever mentioned anywhere in the text.  You had to dig it out. And so I had to annotate it so you could see the IPCC was clearly aware their models had failed terribly but would not draw attention to it because then the whole scare scenario falls.

 

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